BBC Preview: Holliday ready to star for new team

Greetings one and all. Your usual tour guide, Tristan, is away on special assignment to parts unknown. However, he didn't want to leave you in the lurch, or even the Morticia for that matter, so he asked me to fill in for him both in the Fantasy Forecaster and in Baseball Challenge.

First off, Tristan suggested I give a special tip to daily players as a way of ingratiating myself to you wonderful people, so here goes: The trade deadline is on Friday, and once a deal is agreed upon, any players involved in a deal are immediately pulled from their team's lineup, even if it is in the middle of an inning. So, if there's even the inkling of a rumor involving a player you're thinking about starting on July 31, don't do it! Why put yourself in the position of losing even a few at-bats as a result of an in-game deal being announced.

Now, Tristan did manage to set his own lineup for the "Weekly Game" before he left, so don't worry yourselves too much when it comes to that department. But as for the rest of the recommendations and comments below, they're all mine. Still, no reason to bellyache. Sometimes it's good to hear a fresh point of view on things. So, with that in mind, away we go ...

AJ's top three pitching staff values

1. Florida Marlins (CIN-3, ATL-3 -- Ricky Nolasco to get two starts, as well as possibly Josh Johnson), 5.6 price tag: With Andrew Miller optioned to Triple-A, the Marlins have parlayed some well-placed off-days into a four-man rotation. The next opportunity for a No. 5 starter comes on Saturday, Aug. 1, but if the team continues to win, I'd hope they'd give the rotation one more turn around on short rest, just to see what happens. If they do, that moves Ricky Nolasco's second start of the week to Saturday, and Josh Johnson would get a surprise second turn for the week on Sunday.

2. Cincinnati Reds (SD-4, COL-3 -- Homer Bailey and Bronson Arroyo will pitch twice), 5.7: I look at it this way. Either Homer Bailey has a really solid outing on Monday against the worst-hitting team in the National League, or he doesn't get a chance to make his second start of the week on Saturday. It's kind of a win-win situation. Meanwhile, the Rockies have cooled off significantly over the past month, dropping from a .277 hitting team in June to a .257 team in July, and they're a far less threatening lineup away from Coors Field, hitting only .243 on the road in 2009.

3. Kansas City Royals (@BAL-4, @TB-3 -- Brian Bannister and Gil Meche are expected to pitch twice), 5.5: This pick hinges on Gil Meche returning from the disabled list in time to start on Monday against the Orioles. Meche had a sore lower back but MRIs revealed no damage, so he's itching to get back on the mound, especially on the road, where his 2009 ERA is 3.49, a good deal better than his 5.73 ERA at Kauffman Stadium. As for the rest of the team, after watching the Rays get "perfectoed" against Mark Buehrle, forgive us if they don't strike as much fear in our hearts as usual.

Daily dips

Monday, July 27 -- Looking to start plenty of White Sox on Monday against Glen Perkins, who somehow managed to defy all logic and give up eight runs to the Oakland A's in only one inning of work his last time out. ... With Tim Lincecum on the mound for San Francisco, we're going to let our Pirates (assuming there are any left in the lineup) take the day off.

Tuesday, July 28 -- If it's Tuesday, this must be the Brewers. Milwaukee gets to face the Nationals' Collin Balester, whose first start of the season was mercifully cut short by rain, lest his ERA be much higher today than 6.00. ... Meanwhile, we're all over Jason Marquis at Citi Field, where we hear the 10,000th fan to enter the stadium gets to bat fifth in the Mets' lineup.

Wednesday, July 29 -- Aaron Harang not only should make quick work of the punchless Padres, but he might even hit another home run, this time off Mat Latos, which I believe translates to "Door Mat" in Portuguese. ... Meanwhile, you're only going to get one chance at using Zack Greinke, so don't waste it. He's facing the Orioles who might well decide that today is the day that Chris Tillman finally gets the call, if they haven't already called him up earlier this week.

Thursday, July 30 -- After getting tagged for 11 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings against the Twins, we're not exactly sure that Gio Gonzalez will be allowed to make this start in Fenway Park, but if he does, you'd better tune in early, or you might not see all the expected fireworks. ... Erik Bedard could be making his last start for the Mariners against the Rangers on Thursday, but forget about starting him for nostalgia's sake. Start him because he'll be desperately trying to make a good impression on any potential suitors.

Friday, July 31 -- Today's the day to start Paul Konerko and friends, as Sergio Mitre and his 1.59 WHIP takes the hill for the Yankees. ... We're also not holding our breath for Seattle's Jason Vargas to get out of the fifth inning against the Rangers. ... However, we might be willing to give the bearded wonder, Chad Gaudin, a spot-start against the Brewers, a predominantly right-handed hitting team. Righties are only hitting .219 against Gaudin.

Saturday, Aug. 1/Sunday, Aug. 2 -- If Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or some other front-line starter ends up somewhere else this weekend, expect any starters at the back end of the rotation who suddenly wake up to "a new teammate" to be "pitching for their life." That might light a little extra fire under the likes of Boston's Clay Buchholz, Detroit's Rick Porcello, Los Angeles' Joe Saunders or Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann, just to name a few.

Tristan's Week 17 lineup

Total Overall Points: 4,362.
Percentage: 98.2. Overall rank: 996th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 105th.

Total Segment 2 points: 397.
Percentage: 97.2. Overall rank: 494th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 12th.

C -- Joe Mauer, Twins (CHW-3, LAA-3), 4.9 price tag: Mauer has hit "only" .313 in July, but still has a batting average of .400 at the Metrodome, where he will be all week long.
1B -- Albert Pujols, Cardinals (LAD-4, HOU-3), 5.6: Last year against the Dodgers, he hit .409. Against the Astros? He hit .404. With Matt Holliday now providing him protection? Watch out.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (DET-3, SEA-4), 5.1: Personally, I don't like Tristan's pick here. Kinsler in 2009 has hit only .211 against the Mariners, and .091 against Detroit, but he is a far better hitter at home than on the road -- 88 points better -- so maybe it makes sense after all.
3B -- Alex Rodriguez, Yankees (@TB-3, @CWS-4), 5.3: While the batting average away from the new Yankee Stadium has been much more palatable -- .295 on the road versus .217 at home -- the drop-off in power numbers for A-Rod does concern me, but as long as he's locked in to this price, I understand why Tristan wouldn't want to make a change.
SS -- Jimmy Rollins, Phillies (@ARI-3, @SF-4), 4.3: The price tag is cheap, but sometimes you do get what you pay for. Rollins is not hitting for average at all this season, and although Chase Field is generally a good hitters' park, since 2007, Rollins is only a .154 hitter there.
LF -- Matt Holliday, Cardinals (LAD-4, HOU-3), 4.4: It would have been nice to get the four games in Fenway Park before the deal ... but with Holliday now in St. Louis, he gets to hit in the same lineup with Albert Pujols. That's good news for both of these sluggers.
CF -- Matt Kemp, Dodgers (@STL-4, @ATL-3), 4.6: He's hitting .393 for July and .343 on the road. That's a combination that is well worth the 4.6 price tag.
RF -- Nelson Cruz, Rangers (DET-3, SEA-4), 4.7: Against this week's two opponents in 2009, Cruz has 5 HRs, 10 RBIs and is hitting .308. And those games were all on the road, where he's hit 53 points lower than in Texas. Great pick!
DH -- David Ortiz, Red Sox (OAK-4, @BAL-3), 4.9: The power hasn't come yet in the second half, but we'll take the .304 batting average so far and trade in a few points for a dinger or two this week. Deal?
Pitching staff -- Red Sox (OAK-4, @BAL-3), 6.2.

AJ Mass is a fantasy baseball, football and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.